← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 72% | 73% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.62 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 10% | 12% | 9.44 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Manuel Iturra · Málaga CF |
| 63' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ivan Rodríguez · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 410.00 |
| 835.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1433.57 | 1865.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.99 | 14.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.51 | 1.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.60 | 1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |