← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 49% | 55% | 2.01 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 22% | 19% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | John Guidetti · Deportivo Alavés |
| 44' | 🟨 | David Juncà · Eibar |
| 51' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · Deportivo Alavés |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| 1019.00 |
| 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1554.12 | 1529.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.84 | -14.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |