← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 58% | 65% | 1.69 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 19% | 16% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Denis Cheryshev · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | ⚽ | Dani Raba · Villarreal CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | 🟥 | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 76' | 🟥 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Nolito · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 13.00 |
| 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1588.21 | 1597.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.28 | -27.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 46.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.63 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |