← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 38% | 36% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Leganes win | 30% | 36% | 3.22 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 63' | ⚽ | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Emre Mor · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Cuéllar · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1778.00 |
| 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1497.58 | 1589.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.16 | 13.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |