← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 52% | 51% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 23% | 28% | 4.17 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sergio Canales · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 82' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 0 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1398.74 | 1578.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.18 | 7.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | -1.10 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |