← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.15 | value: +11% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 17% | 17% | 5.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1688.39 | 1514.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.36 | 2.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 30.04 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |