← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 45% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +6% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 27% | 34% | 3.67 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 14' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 36' | ⚽ | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 42' | 🟨 | Marc Bartra · Real Betis Balompié |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 49' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 58' | 🟨 | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Javi García · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days |
| 1577.00 |
| 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1574.94 | 1582.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.03 | 50.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 44.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |