← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 50% | 54% | 1.96 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 22% | 19% | 4.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Iñigo Cordoba · Athletic Club |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daniele Bonera · Villarreal CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 51' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 64' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ander Iturraspe · Athletic Club |
| 67' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · Athletic Club |
| 81' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sergio Asenjo · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟥 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 13 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 220.00 |
| 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1615.72 | 1587.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.78 | -12.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| league points | 47.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |