← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 54% | 62% | 1.81 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.78 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 20% | 19% | 4.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 828.00 |
| 2320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1867.40 | 1852.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.39 | 6.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.81 |
| league points | 63.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.78 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 23.52 |
| state index | 1.47 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |