← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 54% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 20% | 22% | 4.85 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Javi Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 25' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 35' | 🟨 | Matías Aguirregaray · Las Palmas |
| 35' | ⚽ | Coke · Levante UD |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 50' | ⚽ | David García · Las Palmas |
| 54' | 🟨 | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Las Palmas |
| 86' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 86' | 🟥 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Campaña · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days |
| 38.00 |
| 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1502.49 | 1404.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.87 | -6.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |