← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 87% | 89% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.07 | fair |
| Leganes win | 3% | 3% | 28.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nabil El Zhar · Leganes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 310.00 |
| 1771.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1943.62 | 1499.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.29 | 2.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| league points | 76.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.57 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |