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Deportivo Alavés 2–0 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Deportivo Alavés win36%42%2.69value: +12%
Draw32%29%3.04fair
Getafe CF win32%29%3.09fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés
30'🟨Gaku Shibasaki · Getafe CF
47'🟨Markel Bergara · Getafe CF
48'⚽Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés
50'🟨Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF
65'🟨Munir El Haddadi · Deportivo Alavés
75'⚽Munir El Haddadi · Deportivo Alavés

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
2On target1
1Corners3
17Fouls22
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDeportivo AlavésGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.53
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)2.204.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Mendizorroza
coach days
127.00
583.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.47
elo1514.481575.90
elo momentum (last 5)-23.27-12.46
eye test v1-0.63-0.10
eye trend v1-0.140.09
first sub minute (last 10)66.5065.20
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.710.80
league points32.0039.00
league rank16.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4066.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8035.00
rest days6.005.00
scorer concentration0.240.40
season ppg1.071.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.20
skill v1-0.33-2.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
state index-0.35-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.30-1.46
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00