← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 48% | 53% | 2.04 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 23% | 21% | 4.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Málaga CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sulley Muntari · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Guilherme · Málaga CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Guilherme · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 51' | 🟨 | Emre Çolak · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 52' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Adrián López · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 73' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Málaga CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Adrián López · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Martínez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 401.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1410.86 | 1442.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.67 | 0.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| state index | -1.24 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |