← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 44% | 37% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 27% | 33% | 3.59 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Getafe CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marc Bartra · Real Betis Balompié |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sergio León · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 21 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days |
| 578.00 |
| 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1588.45 | 1557.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.34 | 41.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |