← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 50% | 59% | 1.96 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.49 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 22% | 19% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sergio Asenjo · Villarreal CF |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Chori Castro · Málaga CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mehdi Lacen · Málaga CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 396.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1525.37 | 1715.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.75 | 2.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.73 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.72 | 27.45 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |