← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 50% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 21% | 23% | 4.66 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1643.29 | 1606.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.79 | -30.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 24.42 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |