← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 42% | 40% | 2.34 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Papakouli Diop · Eibar |
| 57' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Eibar |
| 87' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro León · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1005.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1568.39 | 1557.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.88 | -19.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 39.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |