← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.02 | value: +14% |
| Sevilla FC win | 21% | 21% | 4.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sergio Rico · Sevilla FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1598.67 | 1950.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.84 | 4.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 1.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| league points | 45.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 2.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.03 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |