← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 73% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.15 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 11% | 18% | 8.90 | value: +58% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Momo · Las Palmas |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Las Palmas |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 820.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1407.73 | 1864.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.90 |
| eye test v1 | -1.33 | 1.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 2.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.74 |
| state index | -0.68 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |