← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 43% | 51% | 2.25 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.42 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 28% | 23% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 31' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 44' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 55' | ⚽ | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 334.00 | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1589.86 | 1569.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.41 | -1.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.81 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |