← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 46% | 36% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 47% | 3.37 | value: +57% ⚠ |
| Villarreal CF win | 25% | 17% | 3.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rodri · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vitolo · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 198.00 |
| 2299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1614.72 | 1858.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.36 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| league points | 44.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.62 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |