← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 84% | 86% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 10% | 9.46 | fair |
| Girona win | 6% | 4% | 16.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 29' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 30' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica · Girona |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 67' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 86' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Juanpe · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 14 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 807.00 | 1551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1859.29 | 1602.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.72 | 43.91 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.90 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 57.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.02 | — |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |