← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Leganes win | 25% | 27% | 3.88 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟥 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 1751.00 |
| 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1494.55 | 1610.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.98 | -1.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |