← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 62% | 66% | 1.58 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.12 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 14% | 14% | 6.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Miguel Torres · Málaga CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 260.00 |
| 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1575.43 | 1423.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.40 | -30.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.92 | — |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |