← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 84% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 8.35 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 5% | 5% | 21.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 17' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 31' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 40' | 🟨 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 290.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1947.96 | 1592.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | -20.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| league points | 72.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.57 | — |
| state index | 1.82 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |