← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 18% | 20% | 5.37 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 39' | 🟨 | Álvaro Odriozola · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 76' | 🟨 | — · Getafe CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 16.00 |
| 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1569.09 | 1576.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | -4.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| league points | 33.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.15 | — |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |