← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.94 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 18% | 20% | 5.45 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 44.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1508.82 | 1500.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.40 | -7.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 29.68 | 26.87 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |