← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 43% | 38% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +12% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 320.00 | 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1641.31 | 1658.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.56 | 22.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |