← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 43% | 36% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 42% | 3.39 | value: +43% |
| Levante UD win | 28% | 22% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 25' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 33' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 34' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 63' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 64' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 69' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days |
| 15.00 |
| 989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1487.27 | 1579.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.39 | -15.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 24.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |