← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 45% | 50% | 2.16 | value: +8% |
| Las Palmas win | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 67' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alejandro Gálvez · Las Palmas |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicola Sansone · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 100.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1415.44 | 1605.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.89 | -32.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.25 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |