← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| coach days | 648.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1552.60 | 1578.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.67 | 4.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |