← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 53% | 48% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Leganes win | 18% | 24% | 5.55 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 12' | 🟨 | Nabil El Zhar · Leganes |
| 17' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 28' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 314.00 | 1744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1591.66 | 1503.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.44 | -14.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |