← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 72% | 87% | 1.36 | value: +18% ⚠ |
| Draw | 19% | 8% | 5.22 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 9% | 5% | 10.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 28' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 30' | 🟥 | Samu García · Málaga CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Manuel Iturra · Málaga CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 374.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1425.45 | 1945.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.41 | -3.54 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 2.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.91 |
| state index | -1.34 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |