← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 59% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.86 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 16% | 25% | 6.12 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Getafe CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro López · Levante UD |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ivi · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 79' | ⚽ | Coke · Levante UD |
| 82' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 83' | 🟥 | Koke · Levante UD |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oier Olazábal · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.65 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 555.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1591.70 | 1472.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.16 | -42.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.80 | 34.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.24 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.42 | -1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.69 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |