← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 66% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.02 | fair |
| Eibar win | 15% | 18% | 6.58 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 50' | ⚽ | Iván Ramis · Eibar |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days |
| 983.00 |
| 799.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1583.90 | 1854.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.14 | 1.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.21 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.22 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |