← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 72% | 68% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.35 | value: +10% |
| Las Palmas win | 10% | 12% | 9.50 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Alberto Aquilani · Las Palmas |
| 53' | ⚽ | Erik Expósito · Las Palmas |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 81' | 🟨 | Stanislav Lobotka · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Pablo Hernández · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 247.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1575.59 | 1419.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.30 | 23.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 35.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.20 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.55 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |