← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 59% | 49% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 17% | 28% | 5.70 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 31' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 57' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 2285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1940.11 | 1847.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.31 | 28.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.86 |
| league points | 66.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 24.02 |
| state index | 1.39 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.65 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |