← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 50% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.88 | fair |
| Girona win | 18% | 26% | 5.42 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Dani Raba · Villarreal CF |
| 16' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Daniele Bonera · Villarreal CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Anthony Lozano · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 183.00 | 1536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1711.14 | 1647.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | 31.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 41.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.59 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |