← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 80% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.20 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 7% | 5% | 14.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 47' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 47' | 🟥 | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
| 78' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 792.00 | 548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1950.95 | 1662.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.92 | 24.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.77 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 51.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 28.49 |
| state index | 1.41 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |