← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
| 62' | ⚽ | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
| 85' | 🟨 | Brown Ideye · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1736.00 | 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1493.41 | 1435.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.78 | -31.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.03 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |