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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Eibar

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Eibar win41%43%2.40fair
RC Deportivo La Coruña win30%30%3.22fair
Draw29%27%3.35fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Takashi Inui · Eibar
33'⚽Florin Andone · RC Deportivo La Coruña
39'🟥Maksym Koval · RC Deportivo La Coruña
64'🟨Rubén Peña · Eibar
78'🟨José Ángel · Eibar
89'🟨Sidnei · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots16
2On target3
2Corners9
6Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.150.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.69
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
2.60
coach days30.00976.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.000.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.005.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.202.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.65
elo1416.971586.96
elo momentum (last 5)-31.5520.46
eye test v1-1.23-0.23
eye trend v1-0.02-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)47.8061.60
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.72
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.530.62
league points18.0038.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win11.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0069.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4049.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.270.17
season ppg0.691.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.007.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2015.40
skill v1-0.33-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.303.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.803.80
state index-1.450.54
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.60