← Primera Division 2017-18 · Thu, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 84% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.50 | value: +14% |
| Las Palmas win | 5% | 6% | 18.00 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Matías Aguirregaray · Las Palmas |
| 10' | 🟨 | Dani Castellano · Las Palmas |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 21' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · FC Barcelona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 52' | 🟨 | Samuel Umtiti · FC Barcelona |
| 66' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Las Palmas |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 90.00 | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1411.12 | 1948.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.71 | -7.48 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.84 |
| league points | 19.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 69.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.91 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |