← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
| 15' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · Sevilla FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Brown Ideye · Málaga CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 364.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1442.63 | 1607.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.87 | -18.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| league points | 13.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.26 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |