← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 54% | 51% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 19% | 24% | 5.23 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Luisinho · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sergio Mora · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Michael Krohn-Dehli · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Eneko Bóveda · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pedro Mosquera · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Eneko Bóveda · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 545.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1588.35 | 1424.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.89 | -24.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.55 |
| league points | 33.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.16 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.50 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |