← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 41% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 31% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 53' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Emre Mor · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1532.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1637.92 | 1676.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.97 | -10.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |