← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 58% | 67% | 1.67 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.18 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 18% | 14% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 636.00 | 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1536.70 | 1867.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.84 | 11.41 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 2.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 8.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.37 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |