← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 20% | 18% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Villarreal CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Francisco Molinero · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Villarreal CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 177.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1713.94 | 1660.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.17 | 27.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| league points | 38.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |