← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 55% | 46% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.07 | value: +19% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 21% | 25% | 4.64 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 239.00 | 847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1634.25 | 1576.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.19 | 7.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| league points | 46.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 25.15 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |