← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 56% | 46% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 18% | 30% | 5.52 | value: +65% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hernán Toledo · Las Palmas |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alberto Aquilani · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Chichizola · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1729.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1500.84 | 1406.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.46 | 23.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |