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Leganes 0–0 Las Palmas

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Leganes win56%46%1.75fair
Draw27%24%3.68fair
Las Palmas win18%30%5.52value: +65%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas
66'🟨Gabriel Pires · Leganes
74'🟨Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes
87'🟨Hernán Toledo · Las Palmas
89'🟨Alberto Aquilani · Las Palmas
90'🟨Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes
90'🟨Rubén Pérez · Leganes
90'🟨Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas
90'🟨Leandro Chichizola · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots4
2On target1
6Corners5
22Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.34
cards avg (last 5)4.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMunicipal de Butarque
coach days1729.0085.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.320.47
elo1500.841406.96
elo momentum (last 5)-15.4623.86
eye test v1-0.75-0.48
eye trend v10.100.18
first sub minute (last 10)50.4049.20
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
keeper form v10.690.63
league points29.0018.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4079.00
possession avg (last 5)44.6056.20
rest days3.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.210.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.4011.80
skill v1-1.210.68
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.20
state index-0.66-0.44
sterile dominance v10.050.70
threat rate (last 10)0.180.17
threat rate (last 3)0.140.18
threat rate (last 5)0.150.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20