← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 84% | 89% | 1.16 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 11% | 7% | 8.48 | fair |
| Girona win | 5% | 4% | 20.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 5' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 44' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 66' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 14 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 268.00 | 1529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 2046.18 | 1640.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.95 | 32.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.93 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| league points | 62.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.02 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 25.59 |
| state index | 1.80 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.63 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |